Last year I predicted escalating job losses as companies who supplied sales or services to the building industry and to new home owners saw a crash in their sales. I also predicted the demise of at least one major retailer.. actually what we have seen ..and what I had not predicted is the loss of jobs in companies which had no association with property or consumer sentiment ..these job losses are with multinationals and are a result of the effects of the global crash.
Ok, so with interst rates at rock bottom, with sales in all our shops, with services costing less many people have more cash in their pockets than last year but the Irish people now know that within months they will have less money as they are hit by a serious of tax increases in the coming year. Nobody yet knows how much these taxes will amount to and this is leading to uncertainty and fear.
The loss of equity in their homes is also a cause of concern. We have become used to using our homes to raise cash for all manner of goods and services. This is no longer an option. There is also widespread concern over losses of the value of pensions and investments. We may still have the same amount of money in our pockets as this time last year...but we all know that going forward this will not be the case and we are all going to be poorer. Job security is gone for many as is the belief that one can leave ones job and find another. The employer is once again king. For parents there is a possiblity of the return of third level fees and the knowledge that their offspring who will be completing their education in the next few years cannot be sure that they will find a job in Ireland. There is also the knowledge that the global downturn means our children may not have the luxury of emigration.
Ireland now is a very different place to the ireland of the recessionary 80s. We have a large number of immigrants who have arrived here in the last decade and many of these immigrants could be termed disadvantaged and rely heavily on social welfare. Fianna Fail have put into place a wide selction of tax breaks for those who invested in properties in recent years and many of these properties are being paid for on the double. The taxpayer pays the rent for those who cannot afford to pay it for themselves and then further subsidises that rental in the form of tax breaks to landlords. It seems that the cost of our social welfare bills will be going up and up. I fail to see how we can carry on paying out social welfare and I include rents etc in this.
Unemployement is expected to peak at five hundred thousand this year. It would seem that the next couple of years will see most of the people now on the dole stuck there...and the increasingly hard pressed tax payer will have to foot the bill for their welfare payments .Vat which was increased in the last budget is now pushing more and more people to spend their money in the north. If the government raise vat they will end up decreasing their tax take... an excellent road system means that a person living in Dublin can be across the border in an hour and can save up to 50 per cent on their bills.
So going forward we will be going backward....higher taxes...lower net worth...more difficulty in borrowing. Yes folks its back to basics going forward. The luxeries we thought of as essentials will have to go. Wages will fall. taxes will rise. A good proportion of those people who have become unemployed of late will not get jobs and unlike the 80s many of these people have large mortages and a life style based on the celtic tiger. There is no doubt that many of these people will lose their homes and so we will see an increase in those needing to be housed by the state. Lawlessness which has grown in our streets and estates over the last few years will not go away. One expects that battles between drug lords will become more intense as demand for their products decreases. Morale in our security and health services will decline. Should a garda, whom the state has treated with disdain, put his life on the line for that same state. Hospitals that couldnt function properly when there was plenty of money can hardly be expected to improve when times are bad.
The waste lands and boarded up hovels that we passed each day in the 80s are being replaced with shiny empty new buildings, ghost retail parks, and empty apartments that are so badly built they wouldnt even be considered fit for social housing.
Beware those who will try to encourage you to part with your money..those who say there was never a better time to buy that house, car or holiday home. They lie. house prices will fall further...interest rates will eventually rise, fuel prices will increase and our pockets will be hit further. Its time to baton down the hatches. conserve...budget and be very very careful.
Things will improve. Things always do. And those with a few bob left in their pockets, or a good idea will be best placed to jump on the gravy train when it arrives next time around. In the meantime, I, recently unemployed, have decided to adopt the following approach in securing employment. whatever a prospective employer is offering I will jump in and offer to work for 20 per cent less. For any business person reading this..I would assume that you are currently paying your admistrative staff salaries ranging from 25 to 35 thousand euro per annum. I will do the same job, I will do it better and I will do it for 20 thousand.
If you are interested leave me a comment.
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